Brisbane posts its best final auction result in three months: 38.5%

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Kooky

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Brisbane has recorded its strongest final auction clearance rate since the middle of June. Cotality's finalised results for the week ending 13 September, published on Thursday 17 September, put the city at 38.5 per cent across 169 auctions: 65 homes sold and 104 did not. The research firm notes in the same breath that the figure remains comparatively soft. Brisbane's rate fell below 40 per cent in late May, it says, and has stayed subdued since.

The final number is 3.1 percentage points under the preliminary 41.6 per cent published on the Monday. That kind of drift is normal once late results are counted, and it leaves most of the week's improvement intact. The previous week's final rate was 26.0 per cent, so the gain from one Thursday table to the next is 12.5 points.

A larger week, and a better one

Brisbane held 169 auctions in the week, 29.0 per cent more than the 131 of the week before and, on Cotality's count, about 16.6 per cent more than the 145 held in the same week last year. The number of sales rose faster than the number of auctions: 65 homes sold, against 34 a week earlier. More homes on offer and a higher share sold is the combination sellers hope for in spring, and it has not been common this year.

It was a firmer week nationally too. The combined capitals clearance rate finalised at 52.6 per cent, up from 49.3 per cent, across 1,585 auctions, of which 833 sold. Cotality calls that the strongest result in 19 weeks, and notes it was achieved on a larger list than the 1,431 auctions of the week before.

Melbourne finished at 57.3 per cent from 710 auctions, its highest since late March, and Sydney at 52.8 per cent from 548, its highest in seven weeks. Those two cities accounted for close to four in five of the auctions held. Both remain far quieter than last spring: Melbourne's count was 42.7 per cent below the 1,240 of a year ago and Sydney's about 33.9 per cent below the 829.

Brisbane's 38.5 per cent was still the lowest final rate among the larger capitals, a little above Perth's 38.1 per cent, which rests on eight sales from 21 auctions. Adelaide finalised at 49.4 per cent from 79 auctions, a 13.2-point gain that Cotality says came from a low base and fewer auctions. Canberra finished at 43.1 per cent from 58, up from 37.1 per cent.

Cotality also repeats an observation it has made for several weeks: across the capitals, unsold homes are mostly being passed in on the day, not withdrawn beforehand. Vendors are still taking properties to auction, it says, yet nearly half of those offered are failing to meet the reserve. Those who meet the market are still finding buyers, though in far fewer numbers than a year ago.

From the first count to the final one

Each week's result is published twice, and the distance between the two readings differed sharply across Queensland's three auction markets.

Brisbane lost less ground between the two counts than the national figure did. On the Monday, Cotality had 125 Brisbane results in hand, 52 of them sales. The 44 results that arrived afterwards contained 13 sales, a share of about 30 per cent. Late results were weaker than early ones, as they usually are, but not by enough to undo the week.

Cotality's method explains why the direction is so often down. Its clearance rate sets the properties known to have sold against all known auction results, and it counts withdrawn and passed-in homes as unsold. Successful auctions tend to be reported promptly, and the finalised table is compiled only once nearly every result has been collected.

Both coasts finish at 32.0 per cent

The coastal markets did not follow Brisbane up. On the Gold Coast, Cotality's final table shows 50 auctions and 16 sales, a clearance rate of 32.0 per cent. On the Sunshine Coast, 25 auctions produced eight sales, which also works out at 32.0 per cent.

Both figures are lower than the first reading. On the Gold Coast, the 17 results that came in after the Monday count included four sales. The Sunshine Coast's fall of eight points came without a single extra sale being recorded: the preliminary count already held eight sales among 20 results, and the five results that arrived later were all unsold.

They are also lower than a week earlier, when the Gold Coast finalised at 38.8 per cent and the Sunshine Coast at 37.5 per cent. The Gold Coast's count of auctions was almost unchanged, at 50 against 49, and three fewer of them sold. The Sunshine Coast's list grew from 16 auctions to 25 and produced two more sales.

With 25 to 50 auctions in each region, three or four results are enough to explain a move of that size, so the week-to-week direction is less informative than the level. In both regions, roughly one auction in three is ending in a sale, which for this one week puts the coasts a step behind Brisbane instead of ahead of it.

Two shorter weeks on the way

Cotality's preview for the coming weeks points to a busy weekend followed by two quieter ones, for reasons that have nothing to do with demand.

For Queensland, the third of those weeks is the one to note. The King's Birthday holiday falls on Monday 5 October, according to the Queensland Government's list of public holidays, and it is one of the holidays Cotality has in mind. The firm expects volumes to fall by roughly a quarter that week, and says the decline over the fortnight reflects calendar effects, not a reversal of the usual spring lift.

In the nearer term, Brisbane's 178 scheduled auctions for the week ending 20 September are 5.3 per cent more than the 169 just held and 4.1 per cent above the 171 held a year ago. Cotality describes Brisbane as the only capital tracking ahead of 2025 on that measure. Melbourne's 880 are 32.9 per cent below last year's 1,311, Sydney's 659 are 28.0 per cent below 915, Adelaide's 118 compare with 123, and Canberra's 59 with 104.

Nationally, the 1,903 auctions scheduled are 20.1 per cent more than the week before but 27.9 per cent fewer than the 2,638 held in the same week last year. If they all go ahead, it will be the largest week of the spring so far.

One more date sits inside that fortnight. The Reserve Bank's published schedule has its Monetary Policy Board meeting on 28 and 29 September, between the Grand Final weekend and the October long weekend. Nothing in the figures for the week ending 13 September depends on the decision. It is simply the next event on the calendar that buyers bidding with a loan will be aware of as they set their limits for the remaining weekends of September.

Cotality's reading of the spring so far

The firm's broader commentary is cautious. A couple of weeks into spring, it says, the rise in the number of homes scheduled for auction has become more noticeable, and some of that increase is seasonal. Clearance rates remain well below their decade average and well below the levels of a year ago.

Cotality reads the lower level of auction activity as a sign that vendors remain careful and are continuing to favour private treaty over auction in a market where buyers have more leverage. It also describes conditions across the capitals as uneven and volatile, which Brisbane's last three final results illustrate well enough: 27.4 per cent, 26.0 per cent and now 38.5 per cent.

One week above 38 per cent does not end a run that began in late May. It does show that the result is not fixed. In the week ending 13 September, 31 more Brisbane sellers than in the week before set a reserve that the bidding reached, or agreed a sale around auction day that was counted in the figures. Whether that was the start of something or one good Saturday will be clearer once the 178 results are in. The first count is due on Monday 21 September and the final one later that week.

Kooky, from Shaka

Kooky edits Queensland Estate and builds Shaka, the payment router he made for Queensland property professionals. One payment comes in, and every agent, agency and party in the deal receives their signed share on closing date.

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