Brisbane records the sharpest monthly fall of any capital in September

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Brisbane recorded the largest monthly fall in dwelling values of any Australian capital in September, according to the Cotality Home Value Index published on 1 October 2026. Values in the city fell 1.5 per cent, just ahead of Sydney's decline of 1.4 per cent.

The monthly falls in Brisbane have grown through the winter and into spring, from 0.6 per cent in July to 1.0 per cent in August and 1.5 per cent in September. In August Brisbane's fall was smaller than those of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.

The capitals in August and September

The two columns show where the downturn is gathering pace and where it is not. The falls deepened in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, the three capitals that were still showing strong annual growth in winter. Sydney and Canberra fell at the same rate as in August, and Melbourne's fall eased.

Nationally the index fell 1.1 per cent, after 0.9 per cent in August. It is the sixth monthly decline in a row, and the index now sits 5.2 per cent below the record it reached in March. Over twelve months the national figure is flat, at 0.0 per cent, down from 2.7 per cent in August, with the combined capitals 1.8 per cent lower and the combined regional markets 5.6 per cent higher.

Compounding Brisbane's three monthly falls gives a decline of about 3.1 per cent over the September quarter. Measured from the peak the gap is wider. Brisbane values stood 2.7 per cent below their May high at the end of August, API Magazine reported from Cotality's figures on 4 September, and a further 1.5 per cent takes that to about 4.2 per cent. Both results are calculations from the monthly figures, not Cotality's own published numbers.

Brisbane's position at the top of the table is a matter of timing as much as depth. Sydney's values are 7.0 per cent lower than a year ago and 8.6 per cent below their peak, Cotality says. Melbourne's are 6.2 per cent lower over the year, 7.2 per cent below a high reached in November 2025 and 7.5 per cent below their record of March 2022. Brisbane peaked months after both, and its September figure reflects a market in the earlier, faster part of an adjustment that the southern capitals started before it.

Sales have dropped by more than a quarter

The clearest sign of what is driving the index is in the sales count. Cotality estimates that home sales across Australia over the past three months were 19.1 per cent lower than a year earlier and 13.3 per cent below the five-year average. In August the annual shortfall was 15.5 per cent. Three capitals stand well clear of the national figure, and Brisbane leads them.

Fewer sales mean homes wait longer. The median selling time across the capital cities is now 39 days, against 23 days a year ago. The flow of new listings nationally is 9.2 per cent lower than a year ago, but because homes are selling more slowly, the total number advertised is 23.1 per cent higher.

Brisbane's own selling time had already lengthened before September. Cotality's August figures, reported by Real Estate Business on 8 September, put the city's median at 28 days, against 19 days a year earlier. The capital city median of 39 days suggests campaigns elsewhere are running longer still.

Regional markets are holding up better than the capitals, though they are slowing too. The combined regional index is 5.6 per cent higher than a year ago, down from 7.7 per cent in August, when regional values fell 0.4 per cent in the month.

The slowdown has reached almost every suburb. Cotality reports that 97 per cent of capital city suburbs recorded a fall in values over the three months to September, up from 93 per cent in the August report, and that 71 per cent of regional sub-markets fell during the month.

What other reports say about south-east Queensland

A separate report published the day before points the same way for Queensland's capital. The valuation firm Herron Todd White said in its Month in Review for September, as reported by MPA on 30 September, that total listings in Brisbane and in Perth were more than 50 per cent higher than a year earlier, and that the deepest vendor discounts were in Sydney, Perth and Brisbane. Nationally, the firm's review has the typical vendor discount widening from 3.3 per cent to 4 per cent, and counts 139,167 listings over four weeks, 18.1 per cent more than a year before.

Herron Todd White also noted that new listings were weaker in Sydney and Melbourne, which it read as some vendors delaying a sale. That is the pattern SQM Research found in Brisbane in August, when new listings fell 7.6 per cent while listings older than 180 days rose 13.8 per cent.

The Gold Coast appears to be moving faster than Brisbane. The economics site MacroBusiness reported on 29 September, citing SQM Research, that median asking prices for Gold Coast houses had fallen 8.6 per cent since March and for units 16.4 per cent since February. Those are asking prices, which respond more quickly than values and are not comparable with Cotality's index. The same article cited Cotality figures showing Brisbane's auction clearance rate below 40 per cent for 17 consecutive weeks.

New supply is slowing at the same time. Your Investment Property, reporting Australian Bureau of Statistics building approvals on 1 October, said total dwelling approvals fell 6.1 per cent nationally in August and apartment approvals 21.2 per cent, and that Queensland approved 337 apartments in the month against 1,330 in July. Fewer approvals now mean fewer completions later. REA Group's analysts, quoted by Sunshine Coast News on 2 September, have named shortages of new housing as a factor that may offset some of the downward pressure on prices.

What the figures do and do not say

Cotality attributes the downturn to affordability constraints, higher interest rates, the cost of living and weaker consumer sentiment. Those are national causes, and they apply in Queensland with one local difference: Brisbane's values kept rising for several months after Sydney's and Melbourne's had turned.

The index does not say how far values will fall, and one month at the top of the table does not make Brisbane the weakest market in the country over any longer period. Over twelve months it is the southern capitals that are down. At the end of August Brisbane values were still 10.8 per cent higher than a year earlier and 2.8 per cent higher than at the start of 2026. Applying September's fall to the second figure leaves the city about 1.3 per cent ahead for the calendar year, again as a calculation from published monthly figures.

That sits close to at least one published forecast. Westpac's projections, as set out by Canstar on 28 September, had Brisbane values ending 2026 about 2 per cent above where they began. After September the margin for that outcome is thin, and it is a forecast by one bank, made before the rate decision.

What happens next

The four major banks have said they will pass the rate rise on to variable home loans from 9 October, Savings.com.au reported on 30 September, so October will be the first month in which buyers' borrowing limits reflect a cash rate of 4.60 per cent. The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board next meets on 2 and 3 November, and Cotality's October index is expected at the start of that month, on the pattern of its previous releases.

For vendors and agents the practical content of the September release is in the selling time and the sales count. A campaign planned around the pace of last spring is planned for a market with roughly a quarter fewer buyers completing a purchase. For buyers, the same figures describe more choice and more time, in a city where a fall of 1.5 per cent in one month is, so far, the largest of this cycle.

Kooky, from Shaka

Kooky edits Queensland Estate and builds Shaka, the payment router he made for Queensland property professionals. One payment comes in, and every agent, agency and party in the deal receives their signed share on closing date.

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