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Kooky
Builder of Shaka, the payment router that pays every agent their commission on closing date.
About Kooky and Shaka →The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent on 16 June 2026. The decision, announced in the statement of its Monetary Policy Board, was unanimous and follows three increases this year, in February, March and May.
For anyone watching Queensland prices, one sentence of the statement stands out. The Board wrote that "momentum in the housing market has shifted, with housing prices falling in some capital cities". It is the central bank's own acknowledgement that the rises have started to show in the property market.
Reserve Bank of Australia, Monetary Policy Decision, 16 June 2026; Cotality Home Value Index, published 1 June 2026.
What the statement says
The Board's reasoning is mostly about inflation. The statement says headline and underlying inflation are still too high, that inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025, and that higher fuel prices have added directly to inflation, with signs of this passing through to the prices of other goods and services. Oil prices have come down, it adds, but remain above their level before the conflict in the Middle East.
The latest official reading supports that. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 27 May that consumer prices rose 4.2 per cent over the year to April, down from 4.6 per cent in March, while the trimmed mean measure of underlying inflation edged up from 3.3 to 3.4 per cent. Automotive fuel was 18.6 per cent dearer than a year earlier, even after a 7.0 per cent fall in April when the fuel excise was cut.
Against that, the Board lists the signs that its earlier decisions are working. Interest rates and bond yields have risen, growth in consumer spending is slowing as it expected, and the unemployment rate was higher than expected in April. The ABS labour force release of 21 May put the national rate at 4.5 per cent, up 0.2 percentage points in a month. Queensland's rate rose by 0.5 points, to 4.2 per cent.
Related readUp 0.3% or down 0.2%? Two indexes split on Brisbane prices in JuneThe statement balances those signs with others. Other labour market indicators remain solid, business investment is growing strongly, and credit, the Board says, remains readily available to both households and businesses. On housing, it notes the change in momentum and the falls in some capitals, without naming them.
The three rises behind the hold
The Board chose to wait and see how the increases already delivered work through the economy. There have been three, each of 25 basis points, which adds up to three quarters of a percentage point since the start of the year.
| Decision | Change | Cash rate target |
|---|---|---|
| 3 February | +0.25 points | 3.85% |
| 17 March | +0.25 points | 4.10% |
| 5 May | +0.25 points | 4.35% |
| 16 June | No change | 4.35% |
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, monetary policy decision statements and 2026 Board meeting schedule.
The votes show how the Board's mood has moved. The February rise was unanimous. In May the Reserve Bank reported that eight members voted for the increase and one preferred to leave the rate at 4.10 per cent. In June all members agreed to hold.
The June decision also sits below the path the Reserve Bank used in its own forecasts. Its May Statement on Monetary Policy was built on a market-implied assumption that the cash rate would reach 4.7 per cent by the end of 2026. On that assumption, the Bank forecast headline inflation to peak at 4.8 per cent in the middle of 2026 and return to 2.5 per cent by the middle of 2028, with unemployment at 4.3 per cent at the end of this year and 4.7 per cent by mid-2028. April's unemployment rate is already above the first of those figures.
Which capitals are falling, and where Brisbane stands
The most recent published index fills in the names. Cotality's Home Value Index for May, released on 1 June, recorded falls of 0.9 per cent in Sydney, 0.8 per cent in Melbourne and 0.2 per cent in Canberra. The national index was flat, and Cotality put Sydney values 2.1 per cent below their peak.
Related readBrisbane asking prices drop 1.7 per cent in August as unsold stock agesBrisbane was not in that group. Its dwelling values rose 0.9 per cent in May and 19.1 per cent over twelve months, according to the same release, and regional Queensland rose 0.7 per cent in the month. Cotality lists Brisbane among four capitals still at a record high, and nonetheless describes growth in the rising capitals as losing momentum. Its tables show Brisbane's April rise revised down from a first estimate of 1.2 per cent to 1.0 per cent.
Other Brisbane indicators have softened more visibly than values. ABC News reported on 26 May that the city's auction clearance rate for the previous week was 45.7 per cent, its lowest since April 2023.
So the Reserve Bank's sentence describes Queensland only in part. Momentum has shifted here too, in the sense that monthly gains are smaller than earlier in the year and fewer auctions are clearing. Prices, on the latest index, have not fallen.
A hold does not reverse the three rises already made
Leaving the cash rate at 4.35% keeps borrowing costs where the May increase put them. Lenders assess new loans at rates above the one the borrower pays, so the amount a household can borrow stays lower than it was at the start of the year.
Why a hold still matters for prices
Interest rates reach home prices through borrowing capacity. When the rate a lender uses to assess a loan goes up, the same income supports a smaller loan, and the top bid a buyer can make comes down with it. That works gradually: buyers with approvals already in hand keep bidding for a while, and sellers take time to adjust their expectations.
The effect is also uneven. A market with few homes for sale and steady population growth can absorb higher rates for longer than one with plenty of stock. Cotality's May report makes the same point with numbers: home sales over three months were 17.0 per cent lower than a year earlier in Sydney and 14.2 per cent lower in Melbourne, and advertised stock in both cities had risen above average. That is one reason the same three rate rises sit alongside falls in Sydney and Melbourne and continued, slower gains in Brisbane.
Related readBrisbane home values rise 0.9% in May while the national index stallsRates are not the only force the housing market is absorbing. The federal Budget proposed limiting negative gearing to newly built homes from 1 July 2027 and replacing the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount, and the Commonwealth Bank said on 4 June that the tax changes had accelerated a slowdown already under way. It now expects national dwelling prices to be flat over 2026, and places Brisbane among the cities still growing at a slower pace.
The starting point in Queensland is high. The ABS reported on 9 June that the state's mean dwelling price was $1,123,700 in the March quarter, second only to New South Wales. Each quarter-point rise now applies to loans sized to prices at that level.
What comes next
The statement does not promise that rates have peaked. The Board said it will be attentive to the data and to its evolving assessment of the outlook and risks, and that it will do what it considers necessary to bring inflation back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if required.
Financial markets and bank economists read the hold as a sign that the peak is close. The Western Australian Treasury Corporation's market note of 16 June said markets were pricing in about 13 basis points of further increases by the end of the year, roughly an even chance of one more rise. The same note recorded a modest fall in bond yields after the announcement, with the three-year government yield at 4.43 per cent, and a slightly weaker Australian dollar. The Urban Developer reported that Knight Frank described the hold as a reprieve for property markets, while CPA Australia said cost pressures on businesses remain high. NAB's economists wrote the same day that they expect the cash rate to stay at 4.35 per cent for the rest of 2026, with the next move a cut in the first half of 2027. The Commonwealth Bank's forecast is similar, with cuts in May and August 2027, as Savings.com.au reported on 4 June. These are forecasts, and the Board's own wording keeps a further rise on the table.
Three dates will show how Queensland is responding. Cotality's index for June is due on 1 July, and it will be the first to cover a full month after the May rate rise. The ABS publishes its next monthly inflation figure in late June. The Reserve Bank's Board meets again on 10 and 11 August, when it will also publish new forecasts.
Until then, the picture for Queensland is of a market that is still rising on the published numbers, under borrowing conditions that are tighter than at any point this year, and with a central bank that has now said plainly that housing has turned in parts of the country.
Kooky, from Shaka
Kooky edits Queensland Estate and builds Shaka, the payment router he made for Queensland property professionals. One payment comes in, and every agent, agency and party in the deal receives their signed share on closing date.
