Brisbane home values slip 0.6 per cent in July as the slowdown arrives

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Brisbane dwelling values fell 0.6 per cent in July, according to the Cotality Home Value Index published on 3 August 2026. It is a small number, but it brings Queensland's capital into a decline that had so far been led by Sydney and Melbourne.

The national index fell 0.7 per cent over the month, which Cotality describes as the steepest monthly decline since December 2022. Over the three months to July the national figure was down 1.9 per cent, although it remained 5.3 per cent higher than a year earlier. Regional Queensland slipped 0.3 per cent in July.

Where Brisbane sits among the capitals

Brisbane's fall was half the size of Melbourne's and less than half of Sydney's, and the city's median dwelling value, at $1,104,094, is still the second highest of the capitals in Cotality's figures. The table sets out the five largest capitals as the July index reports them.

On those figures a typical Brisbane home is valued $140,523 below a typical Sydney home and $74,297 above one in Perth. The annual numbers show how Brisbane reached that position: its values are still 14.8 per cent higher than in July 2025, according to Cotality. Only Perth, at 20.5 per cent, and Darwin, at 16.3 per cent, have grown faster among the capitals, while Sydney and Melbourne are 2.0 per cent and 2.8 per cent lower than a year ago.

Of the eight capitals, five fell in July: Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide. Perth and Hobart each rose 0.1 per cent and Darwin 0.8 per cent. The combined capitals index fell 0.9 per cent in the month and 2.5 per cent over three months, to a median of $1,010,814.

A revision changes the story of June

A month ago, Cotality's first estimate had Brisbane values rising 0.3 per cent in June, with annual growth of 17.4 per cent. The July release revises that. Cotality now describes July as the second month of decline in a row for both Brisbane and Adelaide, which means the June rise has been revised away.

Brisbane was not alone. According to the release, Perth's June result was revised from a rise of 0.7 per cent to a fall of 0.5 per cent, and the June figure for the combined capitals was lowered by about a third of a percentage point. Cotality says the revisions reflect how quickly conditions are changing, particularly in the mid-sized capitals.

The explanation lies in how the index is built. Cotality's method statement says the index uses a regression model that combines recent sales with the attributes of each property, such as bedrooms, bathrooms, land area and location, to estimate the value of every home, including those that have not sold. Each month's estimate is recalculated as late sales are recorded. When a market turns, the first estimate leans on sales agreed weeks earlier, and the later one catches up.

The practical effect is that Brisbane's turning point now sits a month earlier than first reported. The median value published for July is $14,212 lower than the $1,118,306 published for June.

Houses, units and the regions

Inside Queensland the fall was not even. Cotality's tables separate Brisbane houses from units, and the capital from the rest of the state.

Units are holding up better than houses. Brisbane unit values are still slightly higher than three months ago, while house values are 0.9 per cent lower. All dwellings together were down 0.6 per cent over the three months, the same as the monthly change.

Cotality's national breakdown by price bracket gives a clue to why. Across Australia, the most expensive quarter of the market lost 3.2 per cent over the three months to July, while the cheapest quarter gained 0.3 per cent. The release read for this article gives no equivalent split for Brisbane, so it would be wrong to assume the same proportions apply in Queensland. The unit and house figures at least point in the same direction: the cheaper type of home is the more resilient one.

Within Greater Brisbane, the strongest annual growth is in the outer south and the inner west. Cotality's list of the fastest-growing areas is led by Beaudesert, up 20.8 per cent over twelve months, followed by Sherwood and Indooroopilly at 20.4 per cent and Beenleigh at 19.4 per cent, with a median of $927,245 in Beenleigh. A month earlier Beenleigh led the list at 22.9 per cent.

Outside the capital

The regional Queensland index fell 0.3 per cent in July, slightly more than the 0.2 per cent decline for all regional markets combined, which was the first fall in the combined regional index since January 2023. Cotality's regional index covers everything outside Greater Brisbane, from the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast to Townsville, Cairns and the inland centres, so a single figure hides large differences.

Regional New South Wales and regional Victoria fell by 0.4 per cent and 0.3 per cent, which puts regional Queensland in the middle of the eastern states. Regional South Australia and regional Western Australia rose, by 1.4 per cent and 0.9 per cent.

At $852,037, the regional Queensland median is $15,126 above regional New South Wales's $836,911 and $82,170 above the combined regional median of $769,867. Its annual growth of 11.7 per cent is three points behind Brisbane's.

What happens around the price

Other measures in the release sit beside the index. Cotality reports that capital city auction clearance rates have been below 50 per cent since late May. Over the four weeks to 26 July, the number of homes advertised across Australia was 1.1 per cent below its five-year average, while in the combined capitals it was 5.7 per cent above. In mid-January national stock had been 25.9 per cent below average.

Brisbane has made that journey faster than most. Cotality's research team told the ABC on 3 August that the city's advertised supply was 25 per cent below its five-year average in February and is now 6 per cent above it. The ABC's report describes the change as a rapid deterioration in a market that had been among the tightest in the country.

Cotality lists the pressures on demand as affordability and loan serviceability, the 75 basis points of rate increases this year, the cost of living, weak consumer confidence and reduced investor activity after the Budget's changes to negative gearing. A second index tells a similar story with smaller numbers: PropTrack's July figures, reported by Elite Agent on 3 August, have Brisbane prices down 0.3 per cent in the month and 11.1 per cent higher over the year.

Lenders report the same retreat from the other side of the transaction. Broker Daily's coverage of the release on 3 August cites NAB figures showing total home lending applications down 15 per cent over the June quarter, and broker data showing the sharpest declines among first home buyers and investors, with households upgrading from an existing home proving more resilient.

Capital growth is not the whole return to an owner. Cotality's total return measure, which adds rental income to the change in value, stands at 18.6 per cent for Brisbane over the twelve months to July and 16.3 per cent for regional Queensland.

What Cotality expects, and what is scheduled

Cotality's release says further falls in values across the country are likely over the coming months, and then lists the reasons it does not expect a sharp correction. Unemployment is low, at 4.4 per cent on the figure quoted by the ABC, which limits forced sales. Population growth continues. High building costs are holding back new supply. And fewer owners are choosing to list, which the firm says could limit some of the downward pressure. Those are the firm's judgements, not outcomes.

Borrowing costs are the obvious background. The cash rate stands at 4.35 per cent after three increases this year, and the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board meets on 10 and 11 August.

For Queensland sellers and their agents, the July figures describe a market that has stopped rising, not one in sharp retreat. For buyers, the same figures mean the monthly gains that made waiting expensive through 2025 are no longer running against them. The August index, due at the start of September, will show whether the falls of June and July were a pause or the first steps of something longer.

Kooky, from Shaka

Kooky edits Queensland Estate and builds Shaka, the payment router he made for Queensland property professionals. One payment comes in, and every agent, agency and party in the deal receives their signed share on closing date.

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