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Kooky
Builder of Shaka, the payment router that pays every agent their commission on closing date.
About Kooky and Shaka →The Reserve Bank has put a measure on how heavy this year's rate rises are for people with a home loan, and the answer is a little lighter than last time. The minutes of the Monetary Policy Board's meeting of 15 and 16 June, published on Tuesday 30 June 2026, record that scheduled mortgage payments have risen after three increases in the cash rate. They also record that, compared with household disposable income, those payments are slightly lower than in the previous period when the cash rate stood at its current level of 4.35 per cent.
The minutes add a second point of direct interest to anyone borrowing or lending in Queensland. Conditions in the established housing market have eased by more than the Bank expected, and housing credit growth looks set to slow.
What the minutes say about repayments
Two sentences carry the message. The first is that banks passed the higher cash rate through to lending and deposit rates, and scheduled mortgage payments rose as a result. A scheduled payment is the amount a borrower is required to pay under the loan, as distinct from anything extra paid in voluntarily.
The second is the comparison. Relative to disposable incomes, the minutes say, scheduled mortgage payments were a little lower than in the previous episode when rates were at this level, because growth in income had outpaced growth in credit in the intervening period.
In plain terms, the cash rate has returned to 4.35 per cent, but households are not quite where they were the last time it was there. Wages and other income have grown faster than the stock of housing debt since then. The same rate now takes a slightly smaller slice of the average pay packet.
Related readAPRA keeps the 3-point home loan buffer as rates and costs climbThat is a statement about the whole country, and averages hide a great deal. It includes households with no mortgage and households that borrowed long ago and owe little. A Queensland family that bought in 2025 near the top of its borrowing limit has not had years of income growth to dilute the debt, and for that family three increases in five months land in full.
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Board meeting of 15 and 16 June 2026, published by the Reserve Bank on 30 June 2026.
Housing credit is expected to slow
On the housing market the minutes are plainer than the statement issued on decision day. Members noted that conditions in the established housing market had softened, that they had eased by more than expected, and that housing credit growth looked set to slow in the period ahead.
The Board named two causes. One is its own tightening of monetary policy. The other is the set of tax changes for housing investors announced in the federal Budget in May. The minutes do not weigh one against the other.
For lenders this is a forecast of thinner business. Housing credit growth is the rate at which the total of home loans outstanding expands. When it slows, banks either accept slower growth in their own books or compete harder for a share of what is written. Queensland's lenders have been living with the second option for some weeks: several, including Bank of Queensland and Queensland Country Bank, cut variable rates for new customers between the May and June meetings, according to Canstar's count published on 11 June.
For borrowers a slowing credit market is not the same as a closed one. The Board's statement of 16 June said credit remained readily available to households and businesses. The slowdown the minutes describe comes from fewer people wanting or qualifying for loans, not from banks shutting the door.
Related readBank of Queensland's home loan book shrinks by almost $1bn in MayWhy the Board chose to wait
The minutes show the Board regarded its policy as already biting. Members assessed that financial conditions had tightened since the start of the year and were now probably somewhat restrictive. The cash rate sat at about the top of the range of estimates of the neutral rate, the level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy.
Against that, the case for concern about inflation had not weakened. The information received since the May meeting supported the view that the economy was operating with excess demand and that inflationary pressures were widespread. Underlying inflation in April was consistent with what the Bank's staff had expected for the June quarter, and the staff still expected underlying inflation to rise in that quarter. The staff's May forecasts had it taking a further two years for inflation to return sustainably to target.
On households, members noted that underlying momentum in consumption had started to ease, although spending growth had not softened materially despite very low consumer sentiment. On jobs, April's unemployment rate and employment were weaker than expected, while hours worked and underemployment pointed to a more resilient labour market.
The Board concluded that leaving the cash rate unchanged would best balance its inflation and employment objectives. The reasons recorded were that the slowdown was arriving broadly as expected, that the earlier increases were having broadly the expected effect, and that uncertainty about the conflict in the Middle East argued for taking time to assess. The decision was unanimous.
- What had changedThree increases since February had made financial conditions probably somewhat restrictive.
- What had notInflation stayed materially above target, with excess demand and widespread cost pressures.
- The decisionHold at 4.35%, unanimously, and keep a further increase available if needed.
Is 4.35 per cent the top
The minutes do not say so. They record that the Board will do what it considers necessary to return inflation to target, including increasing the cash rate target if necessary. No specific trigger is given.
Related readCommonwealth Bank home loan arrears reach 0.73% as applications fallEconomists at the major banks read the same text and reached three different degrees of comfort, according to The Adviser's report of 1 July. Taylor Nugent, a senior economist at NAB, took the minutes as confirmation that the cash rate has probably peaked despite their tone, and called further tightening exceedingly unlikely. Belinda Allen, head of Australian economics at Commonwealth Bank, described the tone as hawkish, meaning leaning towards higher rates, but said another increase did not appear imminent and that the bank expects no change through 2026. Adam Boyton, head of Australian economics at ANZ, said the minutes underlined the Board's hawkishness and therefore the risk of another increase, while expecting the cash rate to stay at 4.35 per cent for about a year.
Data published between the meeting and the minutes will feed the next decision. Savings.com.au reported on 24 June that annual inflation eased to 4 per cent in May while housing costs kept core pressures elevated, and on 25 June that the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4 per cent in May. Neither figure settles the question. Lower headline inflation supports a hold; a firmer labour market does not argue for relief.
What it means for Queensland borrowers
Three practical points come out of a careful reading.
Planning for rates to stay where they are is consistent with the record. None of the three bank economists quoted expects a cut before 2027, and the Board's own staff see inflation taking two more years to return to target. A household budget built on the assumption of relief by Christmas has no support in the minutes.
Related readFixed rates fall in July as Suncorp cuts by up to 80 basis pointsThe national comparison on repayments is reassurance for the system, not for every household. The Reserve Bank looks at the share of income going to mortgage payments across all households to judge whether the economy can bear the current rate. An individual borrower's position depends on when they bought and how much they owe. Moneysmart, the consumer site run by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, suggests testing a budget against a rise of 2 or 3 percentage points before taking a loan; for those already in one, the equivalent is knowing what one more quarter-point would add. Canstar puts that at about $92 a month on a $600,000 loan.
Help exists before a repayment is missed. Moneysmart explains that a borrower in difficulty can ask the lender for a hardship variation, and that the lender must reply in writing within 21 days.
An average that includes people without a mortgage
The Bank compares scheduled payments with the income of all households. The figure says the country as a whole is carrying the current rate slightly more easily than before. It does not describe a household that borrowed in the past two years.
What it means for sellers, agents and lenders
A slower credit market reaches the sale of a home through the buyer's finance. When borrowing capacity is tight, a finance approval can take more care and the lender's valuation can matter more to whether a sale completes. The Board describes a softer established market across the country; Cotality's figures for May, reported by The Adviser on 18 June, still had Brisbane values rising, so the local picture is less clear-cut than the national one.
For lenders, the minutes point to a period in which growth has to be won from competitors. That tends to favour borrowers who are willing to ask for a better rate or to move.
The Board next meets in August. Before then it will receive the June quarter inflation figures, the first full quarterly reading since the May increase, along with two more monthly labour force reports. The minutes of that meeting will show whether the comparison on mortgage payments still holds once another quarter of income and credit data is in.
Kooky, from Shaka
Kooky edits Queensland Estate and builds Shaka, the payment router he made for Queensland property professionals. One payment comes in, and every agent, agency and party in the deal receives their signed share on closing date.
